March 8th, 2010

Monday Link Review

Neil Schulman
by Neil Schulman, Editor in Chief
View all posts by Neil Schulman

Welcome to another edition of K Exchange’s Monday Link Review, your weekly digest of the best science and engineering links from across the web.

ENR.com has a great look at Egypt’s search for a contractor to build it’s already designed $550 million museum.

All the way from The Guardian in the UK comes a piece on the Greenroads evaluation of the sustainability of US Road construction.

Speaking of the UK, EU Infrastructure takes a look at a construction project in Wales that includes a 131ft tall tower topped by an 82 ft tall Dragon!

And finally, one Youtube user used a centrifuge to answer the age old question… what would happen to a Lava Lamp on Jupiter?

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March 5th, 2010

Learn About Knovel Math in Cyberspace

by dougmacdonald, Director of Product Management and Business Development
View all posts by dougmacdonald

I’m willing to admit that I’ve never been to a virtual event before. On March 16th I’m going to try it for the first time.  The virtual event is a cool concept for interactivity.  You get to choose an avatar (no, not a big blue guy with a tail, this avatar is a cartoon version of yourself or an uploaded image) and chat with fellow participants, ask questions of experts, and download and “take home” educational materials.  The only thing missing are the free cocktails and the golf outings.  On a positive note, you don’t have to make the case to your management team to spend $2,500 plus travel and hotel time – this event is free.

If you’re a Mathcad user and a Knovel Math customer,  or if you’re thinking about trying Knovel Math, this is a great opportunity to learn more.

Register for the Mathcad Engage Virtual User Conference: the first online conference for the Mathcad community  http://events.unisfair.com/index.jsp?eid=522&seid=25 .  It’s Tuesday, March 16th from 1pm-5pm Eastern time, you will hear about the Mathcad Technology Vision and Strategy as well as our Product Update and Roadmap without leaving your desk.  I’ll be there with a few colleagues, watching the main tent presentations and would love to “see” you at the Knovel booth or at the networking lounge.

Want to check out the environment first, to see what virtual events are all about? Visit  http://www.unisfair.com/platform click the green Experience Unisfair button on the right.  I was surprised that you can really think of yourself as AT an event, rather than in a cartoon!  There are “real” booths, and the navigation is fairly easy to get the hang of

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March 4th, 2010

History of the Space Shuttle Part 3: Skylab

Craig the Rocket Scientist
by Craig the Rocket Scientist, Featured Blogger.
View all posts by Craig the Rocket Scientist

Part 1 Part 2

A few weeks ago I talked about how the first mission for the space shuttle was going to be the rescuing and refurbishment of Skylab. Between the Olympics and some other issues, it took me a few weeks to get to this.

This is how we built space stations back in my day!

SkylabFirst, a quick overview of Skylab. The idea of a space station had been discussed since the early ‘60’s. It was agreed  that the most economical way of putting up a space station would be to replace an upper segment of a rocket, or actually use an empty segment of a rocket’s upper stage. A follow-on mission would then equip the station with science labs, solar panels, and everything the station would need. Near the end of the Apollo program, NASA found it had several extra Saturn-IBs rockets and retrofitted a Saturn-IV upper stage to serve as the station. This would serve as the foundation of Skylab.

Despite several difficulties which had to be overcome, Skylab was considered a success. All good things must come to an end though, so in 1974 having expended its fuel, the station was put into a “grave-yard” orbit, one which would decay over several years and allow the station to burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere.

The hope at the time was that the space shuttle would be ready in time (September 1979) to dock with Skylab, refuel it, and push it into a higher orbit, extending its life. Additional missions would have the shuttle restock the station periodically, and even allow for a crew of 8.  The cost of resupplying the space station? 60 million in 1980’s money. Not too shabby when you consider the ISS has cost roughly 150 billion to date.

Meh, it’s only Australia*

While the station remained in good condition, development of the space shuttle main engines (SSMEs) was taking longer than expected. Sadly the trouble wasn’t an engineering one; requirement changes, lack of funding, and infighting among the contractors delayed the engines production.

ShuttleskylabIn the end, the shuttle would be ready too late to save Skylab, forcing NASA to de-orbit the space station. Skylab refused to go quietly and didn’t completely burn up in the atmosphere. Bits and pieces of the station were strewn across the Australian outback, some even landing on a few Australian’s homes. (The US government was charged $400 for littering. I’m not joking.)

While the Space Shuttle wasn’t able to save Skylab, it was a key instrument in a nearly ever large NASA success for the past 25 years.

Next time we will take a look at some of the major success of the Space Shuttle’s career.

*Craig would like it to be known that he has nothing but fond feelings for Australia, Australians and Kangaroos, and has deep respect for the mighty Wombat.

Read: Part 1 Part 2

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February 28th, 2010

Monday Link Review

Neil Schulman
by Neil Schulman, Editor in Chief
View all posts by Neil Schulman

As the calendar rolls around to March, and 2010 rolls on, it’s time for yet another Monday Link Review, our weekly roundup of the best science and engineering links from across the web.

Physorg.com has a story on engineers from the University of Florida creating a flat surface that doesn’t get wet.

Don’t you hate when something is just on the tip of your tongue? LiveScience has a piece explaining exactly what happens in those moments.

Ars Techica has a great piece that estimates 93% of human behavior is predictable.

Finally, the Salk instutute has successfully replaced a mouse’s liver with that of a human.

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February 25th, 2010

A Serious Note from Craig the Rocket Scientist

Craig the Rocket Scientist
by Craig the Rocket Scientist, Featured Blogger.
View all posts by Craig the Rocket Scientist

This is a post I’ve wanted to write for a few weeks, but I’ve been afraid to. I’ve been afraid that personal emotions would hijack logic, afraid that this wouldn’t be the correct forum, afraid of talking openly about it.

You see, three weeks ago I, along with several hundred other co-workers, was laid-off. My editor and I agreed from the beginning that my employer should remain anonymous, but I will say that it was a major contractor for NASA, working on both the Space Shuttle and Ares programs. With the shuttle program shutting down and the lack of funding for Constellation/Ares, the reasons behind lay-offs are clear. Lay-offs like this are plaguing the industry and will most likely continue due to the recent announcement that the current administration will no longer support funding for the Constellation program.

I ask that your thoughts go out to these people and their families, as they face difficult times ahead of them.

Despite the sad faces I’ve seen, and the angry words angled at the government, I must take an unpopular stand by saying that these lay-offs and the canceling of Constellation could be the greatest thing in 20 years to happen to the American space program.

Nearly every watcher of the aerospace industry saw this day coming since the early 90’s. NASA has aborted every new space vehicle it attempted to build; also NASA and its contractors have lost many good and experienced people to old age, and poor funding. Private launch companies like Boeing and Lockheed are relying on technology from the late 70’s and early 80’s to support what’s left of our space program. Overseas, foreign powers are beginning to develop space programs of their own, fueled by new economic growth, national pride, and a willingness to take risks.

Post-Challenger, this country lost that willingness to take risks. We believe that space travel should not take place if it can not be done safely. This belief manifested itself like a deformed limb, twisting and crippling our once strong hold on space. Like any limb which has grown improperly it must be broken and reset. This is a painful process, one filled with agony and a long period of rehabilitation. However it must be done if the limb is ever to be useful again.

These lay-offs and the cancellation of Constellation are (hopefully) the breaking and resetting of our space industry. It will be difficult as I and my coworkers are finding out, but it must happen for a brighter future. Despite these difficulties, I believe this is a time for hope and optimism.

One only needs to look as far as Space X, Virgin Galactic, Bigelow Aerospace, Blue Planet, and Blue Origin to see that private spaceflight has been a whisper away for nearly a decade. The technology exists, the experience exists, the drive and passion exists, and now hopefully the money will exist too.

Like the airplane at the turn of the century, it wasn’t until the government was ready to give out high-paying contracts to deliver mail that the private industry really took off (no pun intended). While passenger transport was only for the upper class, it spread to nearly all classes in just a few decades. Now it’s the rockets turn to hopefully follow the same path.

With the oppressive overhead of government control moving aside and the promise of lucrative contracts coming, the time is fast approaching for space travel to be open to the private citizen. The industry has the talent, the experience, and now the opportunity. Getting laid-off was hard, and even harder for others I know. But it is a price that must be paid if we want to get our space industry on track, and it’s one I pay gladly.

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February 24th, 2010

K Exchange Talks Roofs, Engineering and Curling with a Real Canadian Engineer

Neil Schulman
by Neil Schulman, Editor in Chief
View all posts by Neil Schulman

With the Olympics in full swing, Curling on TV at least six hours a day and National Engineers Week Foundation launching their Women in Engineering Marathon on March 10th, what better time for us to speak with Darcy, a Civil Engineer Technologist from Western Canada? Darcy and I spoke about house building, being a woman in a man’s world and the international phenomenon known as Curling.

K Exchange: First off Darcy, thanks for agreeing to speak with us. Can you tell us what made you want to be an Engineer?
Darcy
:  My whole family, immediate and extended, have worked in construction for as long as I can remember.  My dad worked for one of the largest industrial engineering and procurement companies in the world before he retired; his brother owns a medium sized industrial insulation company in the West, my grandfather built refineries for the likes of Shell and Imperial Oil when he was alive.

I’ve always just assumed that I would go into construction.  Unlike the rest of my family, I’m in residential.  I like that it’s more tangible than commercial or industrial construction.  When I say I design roofs, people know what I’m talking about.

I’m not actually an engineer, though.  I’m a Civil Engineer Technologist, which means I have a diploma (two years of study) in Civil Engineering.  My degree is actually in Business Management.

What type of work do you do?
Darcy: I work for a company that supplies residential housing.  We design/supply Ready to Move (RTM) homes, in addition to roof systems, floor systems, house packages, blueprints and buildings supplies.  My particular area of work involves roof design.

ResRoofKX: Why did you choose to go into residential roof design? Is it what you went to school for?
Darcy: I chose this field because they had the best offer upon graduation! As I said, I’ve completed a diploma in Civil Engineering.  How much my schooling actually applies to the real world is up for debate; this industry is very software specific – your time is spent first learning how to use it and then designing with it.

Now, having said that, I use trigonometry daily.  I also use my statistics classes quite frequently when working out loading and load dynamics on roofs.  You never know, sitting in a class, what information will actually be useful to you.  I’m as surprised as anyone else that I rely on trigonometry and force diagrams to understand my daily job!

I lucked out with this job, big time.  Our office has two P.Eng’s and several C.E.T.s (Certified Engineering Technologists) who have been in the industry forever.  They can always find the most economical way to build/design something, and they’re very aware of the big picture; they don’t just look at the floors or the roofs or whatever – they’ll analyze the whole structure and make sure it’s acceptable.  This is rare, and a great environment to learn in.

KX: If you couldn’t be working as an Engineer, what would you like to be doing?
Darcy: Teaching college or university.  I’m taking a master’s degree in Human Security and Peacebuilding (essentially a political science mixed with mediation and international law degree). I spent about six months in 2008 teaching in Africa; I like teaching and I think I’m good at it.  I’m still toying with the idea of doing a PhD.  If I ever do, you can rest assured it will be in a wholly unrelated field.

KX: Back to what you are doing, what kind of projects have you worked on? What has been your favorite?
Darcy: The most memorable one for me was designing a house where the roof was a giant loft.  The trusses themselves sat on the floor of the structure (as opposed to the walls), and everything had massive vaults running through it, including the dormers.  Given that it was a loft/attic space we were trying to squeeze as much ceiling height out of every possible nook and cranny.  It was extremely difficult to design, and it involved so much back-and-forth with the homeowner that he and I eventually became friends.  I still chat with him on Facebook!  You know it’s been a long project when you can claim that about your customers.

Beyond that, I design roofs for any residential application; the repetitive houses in the new subdivisions, additions to older homes, you name it.

roof-trussKX: Can you tell us anything about really innovative design work going on now? What kind of work has inspired you?
Darcy: There’s a great group of people called the Western Wood Truss Association.  They put on an exhibition every year, and new products and ideas are showcased there.  Things that jump out to me are stuff like:

  • Using green material to treat lumber
  • Standardizing the LEED criteria (there are a number of ‘green’ certifications out on the market; there is an effort to standardize things, so that it’s a comprehensive list that everyone is aware of rather than having 10 or 12 different acronyms that kind of do the same thing)

Change is slow, though, because framers and designers like to stick with what they know will work, rather than maybe losing money on a fad that could turn out to be not profitable or – worse – unsafe.

KX: I think it’s safe to say that your industry is stereotypically male dominated. Have you found this to be the case?
Darcy: Yes.  I’ve only ever seen one other female roof designer.  Everyone in our office except our receptionist/office manager is male, and so far all my customers have been men.

KX: Has it ever been an issue?
Darcy: I can honestly say that I’ve never, ever felt that I was at an advantage/disadvantage because of my gender.  Really, it’s a non-issue here.

CurlingCanadiansKX: Finally, with the Olympics taking center stage in your own backyard, I have to ask a few questions. How do you feel about Team Canada’s hockey team? Or will you, right now dispel that myth that all Canadian’s love hockey? And even more importantly, what is the deal with Curling, and why can’t I stop watching it?
Darcy: I really can’t comment on curling or hockey.  I don’t watch either sport.  Now, if you’d like, we can do an interview on my thoughts regarding NASCAR. If I must comment on hockey, I’ll say that we kick United States butts!


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February 22nd, 2010

Monday Link Review

Neil Schulman
by Neil Schulman, Editor in Chief
View all posts by Neil Schulman

Hello loyal readers, and welcome to another edition of K Exchange’s Monday Link Review! We’ve managed to peel ourselves away from the 24 hour Olympic Curling coverage in order to make sure that you get your weekly dose of the best science and engineering links available on the web. Enjoy!

Scientific American has a very cool story called Fighting Crime with Math, exploring mathematical models built from LAPD crime statistics.

I’ll personally never forget a filmstrip I watched in grade school called “Can I Sit on a Cloud?” that explained to kids what clouds were made of. In another story from Scientific American, they go into a little more scientific detail on The Physics of Clouds. Sadly, the Scientific American piece does not feature Wondercat.

United Press International has a short feature on how scientists are making discoveries in the brain… of the fruit fly.

Finally, after nearly 100 years, we’ve learned the cause of King Tut’s death. Contrary to Steve Martin’s belief, he did not actually die “for tourism.”

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February 18th, 2010

Craig the Rocket Scientist Will Now Attempt the Triple Axel

Craig the Rocket Scientist
by Craig the Rocket Scientist, Featured Blogger.
View all posts by Craig the Rocket Scientist

Last night I told my wife that the Olympics make me proud to be an engineer and that I get all sorts of excited about engineering when I watch the winter games. I’ve had a bit of time to watch the winter Olympics this time around, and I want to give a special shout out to all the REAL heroes of the 2010 Winter Olympics: The Engineers.

Pine in the Alpine?

skiDownhill skiers will undergo over 3.5G’s of acceleration throughout the turns. Impressive, but what’s amazing is the skies under their feet. Not only must the skies support over 600 lbs of force but must be flexible enough to carve through the turns.

So what are the magic materials that power these next generation super skies? Carbon composite leading edges? Aerogel cores? Nope, amazingly enough the highest performing skies are composed of plain old fiber glass, wood, and some laminated metals. While the construction is anything but simple, spruce, fir and other woods are at the heart of these high performance skies. Gold metal for the Material Engineers!

90 KPH on ¼” of Steel

lugerThe unfortunate accident that caused the death of Georgian Olympian Nodar Kumaritashvili’s has put the Luge in the forfront of these Olympics games. At the heart of this event is the sled, which is custom built for each rider. So exacting is the aerodynamic science that teams will often go to high-performance automobile manufacturers like BMW and Porsche to improve and tweak the aerodynamics of the sled. Primarily constructed of steel and fiberglass, the sleds balance flexibility for control and stiffness for strength.

No less high-tech are the helmets, suits, gloves, and boots, each designed to minimize air resistance and optimize body position… All while protecting the rider while they and their sleds are reaching over 90 kilometers per hour!

Another gold goes out to the Aerodynamists

A lot of attention is spent on the athletes, but where would the games be an army of engineers designing skies, sleds, and suits to bring out the best of those athletes? I’m pretty sure I could be an Olympic athlete too… all I need is the right equipment… (insert curling joke here.)

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February 16th, 2010

Attendees Quench Thirst for Sustainability Knowledge and Refreshing Cocktails

by Amy Burnis, Knovel's Director of Marketing Communications
View all posts by Amy Burnis

attendeesLast week Knovel convened a panel of sustainability experts at The Discovery Science Center in Anaheim to provide engineers a forum to learn, share and collaborate on the subject. The event, co-sponsored by our partner Elsevier, attracted a motivated and enthusiastic crowd that lingered long after the panel discussion. Some, in fact, drove more than an hour and a half to attend. Although, that had more do to with LA traffic than distance.

The title of the session, “Green Engineering, Sustainability and Its Impact on Design and Engineering,” evokes a range of opinions based upon personal experience, so the panelists opened with introductions and remarks about what Green means today. The Q&A based discussion covered a range of topics including cradle-to-grave design, policy & standards, US competitiveness, business drivers and, of course, money.

We polled the audience throughout the session to determine corporate expectations and priorities with respect to sustainability. When asked, “how important is sustainability for your organization/company,” 16% of attendees indicated top priority, 28% indicated very important and 35% indicated important.

sarah_attendeesOne of my favorite quotes is by Margaret Mead, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.”  Yes, it’s a bit altruistic, but it’s true and inspiring. Often change is made by an individual, not a company. Grass roots efforts will likely continue to lead sustainability initiatives. Companies and respective leaders want to understand the economic viability of “green.”  We can all take a role in that educational/learning process. This includes collaborating with peers and colleagues to share knowledge.

On the topic of economic viability, one example discussed during the session was the availability of green cleaning products. Until people vote with their dollars and buy green products, why would a company drop a profitable and established product line? They would not.

We all have the opportunity to make responsible decisions and lead initiatives. The current economy is driving a “less is more spirit” and innovation.  With information people make better decisions. Before I knew about the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, I didn’t think much about using plastic grocery bags or water bottles. Now when asked “paper or plastic,” I cringe. Yes, I still use plastic bags and drink bottles of water, but I also recycle and use less when I can. Ignorance is bliss.

In many ways, California is positioned to lead with environmental initiatives- not just on the consumer level. Is the conversation different in other cities/states? What are you working on?

For those not able to join us in sunny southern CA, we recorded the session and will make segments available online shortly. We hope you will continue to engage in the discussion of sustainability. Keep in mind, we offer a wealth of information in our Sustainable Energy and Development subject area. That should get you started.

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February 15th, 2010

Monday Link Review – President’s Day!

Neil Schulman
by Neil Schulman, Editor in Chief
View all posts by Neil Schulman

The offices at Knovel might be closed for President’s Day today, but that wasn’t going to stop us! We know you rely on our weekly selection of links from around the Science and Engineering world, and we hate to disappoint our readers.

First, the website PlanetOddity.com takes a look at an abandoned subway in Cincinnatti Ohio.

Next, I found this great piece on mnn.com detailing 7 Amazing Examples of Biomimicry.

Physorg.com has a story on an “archaeological time machine,” a revolution on radioactive carbon dating.

Finally, National Geographic has a story from England about a revolutionary new power plant being built, one that resembles a giant volcano!

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February 11th, 2010

Craig the Rocket Scientist Shoots Zombies and Saves the Princess

Craig the Rocket Scientist
by Craig the Rocket Scientist, Featured Blogger.
View all posts by Craig the Rocket Scientist

My squad is gone, and I have no back-up. The fate of the world rests on my shoulders and trigger finger. 3 very unfriendly aliens have me pinned down while a 4th is trying to flank me. I only have 3 bullets left… I almost feel bad them.

The situation above is nothing new for me. But what if instead of being on the edge of my seat, thumbs manipulating a small piece of plastic, I was actually taking cover behind my couch, jumping, ducking, and rolling to avoid gunfire?

Microsoft is developing a new system of interaction with its Xbox360 that may allow me to do just that. Codenamed “Project Natal” Microsoft is trying to change the way we all play games, and maybe even the way we live.

The Wii exploded into our lives with a game system that allowed even grandma and grandpa to play games, eschewing cutting edge graphics for motion control. Numbers don’t lie; the Wii has been a juggernaut in terms of sales but the user is still forced to wave a plastic wand around. Project Natal will watch a players actions and interpret those actions into input, no other controller needed. Gamers online are debating right now if this will be the next big thing, or simply a flash in the pan gadget.

But could it be Microsoft just re-invented the mouse and no-one has noticed?

Box_for_punch_cardsOriginally people would program and input commands to computers using large stacks of punch cards. (I would really love to hear from you if you have any experience with this.) After programs were developed to allow the input of commands via keyboards, the use of computers expanded and so did their capabilities. Once a graphical system of navigating and inputting commands (mice and clicks) was created (thank you Xerox!) use of computers expanded even more and again, began to be used for even more tasks.

Granted, other advances in technology allowed for a reduction in size of computers, and lower prices made them affordable enough for personal ownership. However, the fact remains that most people don’t really understand computers. We understand very well what computers and technology can do, we just don’t know how to communicate our wants to it! We can’t just sit down and tell our computer we want to create a blog post and have it start taking dictation for us.

What if when I sat down on the couch the TV recognized someone was there and turned itself on? Better yet, what if the TV recognized me and instead of showing me Grey’s Anatomy, it turned itself to an episode of Chuck instead, allowing me to fast forward through commercials with a wave of my hand? This is the technology Microsoft is developing.

The technology has much broader use than just inside the living room. CAD users could rotate and edit an object with just their bare hands, or check designs for maintenance ergonomics by virtually trying to fit a socket wrench through a crevice.

Essentially any instance where people interface with technology could be drastically altered and improved. Of course a keyboard would still retain its use for large amounts of text input, but could Project Natal put the mouse on the endangered species list?

Uh-oh, looks like those zombies just kidnapped the princess (again). Guess I have work to do…

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February 10th, 2010

Interview with a Weatherman

Neil Schulman
by Neil Schulman, Editor in Chief
View all posts by Neil Schulman

There are certain advantages to being friends with a weatherman. As anyone living in the Northeastern United States can attest, many of us have been glued to The Weather Channel for the past week trying to gauge exactly what the next storm is going to bring.

After two blizzards in the span of a week I spoke with John Cifelli, a meteorologist and the author of John Cifelli’s WeatherNJ. John and I talked about his motivations for working in meteorology and the current whitewash outside our windows.

K Exchange: First off, can you tell us why you wanted to be a weatherman?
John Cifelli: I love snow; the Blizzard of ‘96 was something I’ll never forget. As a boy, watching Niko, my German Shepherd who stood over 6 feet on her hind legs, having to bound like a deer through 4 foot drifts  was just incredible. I wanted to know why, and I wanted to know when it would happen again! I’m also terribly competitive, and I love a challenge. As I entered college, I realized that meteorology offered me the opportunity to satisfy my passion for weather, and the chance to compete with my peers in challenging forecasting situations.

KX: Do you consider yourself a scientist?
JC: A meteorologist is certainly a scientist. From a forecasting perspective, the goal is to analyze a wealth of data, decide what is relevant, what is flawed, and present the most likely solution. It is much more subjective than other sciences in the sense that much of what a weather forecaster looks at is open to interpretation.

KX: What causes a big storm like the one we have now? Is it similar to any other storm?
JC: A snowstorm, like all weather systems, is a result of unequal heating on Earth. The equator receives the bulk of the sun’s energy, while the poles receive the least. A storm represents a heat flux in an attempt to balance this unequal distribution of energy.

KX: What’s involved in actually predicting storms like this? We heard anywhere from 6-10 to 10-18 inches for this storm, how do you arrive at these numbers?
JC: Different meteorologists can look at all the information before them in different ways. There are many different computer models- the NAM, GGEM, ECMWF, GFS just to name a few. They are all governed by the “primitive equations” of the atmosphere, which are physical algorithms for the basic properties of everything going on above you- temperature, pressure, humidity, etc. But they have different spatial scales, resolutions, boundary conditions, and data input.

To make matters more confusing, they run all of these models up to 4 times a day. Then they run models that use the solutions of these primary models as input to give more ideas of what could happen. Then they have ensembles of some of these models, where they tweak one of the equations to show what could happen in a slightly different scenario. The GFS, for example, has over 20 ensembles. All of these projections can vary, sometimes to an extreme extent given a certain timescale. The amount of data a meteorologist has at their disposal is overwhelming, and deciding what is or isn’t useful isn’t always easy.

Specifically for a snowstorm, a forecaster has to consider temperature, wind speed/direction, humidity, and then consider those variables at all levels of the atmosphere, over areas with very unique microclimates (consider the differences between Sparta and Atlantic City in New Jersey) and over considerable periods of time. Then, even if the near term forecast was essentially perfect, I haven’t even touched on chaos theory- what happens at hour 36 and 48 if the forecast was just a little off at 12 or 24.

KX: How is it that, as with Saturday’s storm, Southern NJ can be hit by over a foot of snow, while areas 40 miles north get almost nothing?
JC: Last weekends storm ran into a region of strong confluence in New England that reached down into northern NJ. Confluence is the convergence of streamlines- paths of wind- aloft. In order for any precipitation to occur, there needs to be a lift mechanism to transport air from the surface to higher altitudes where it cools, condenses, and precipitates. Air cannot be lifted into a region of confluence very easily. You can visualize the amassing of air aloft where the streamlines converge. How are you going to lift more air into an area that already has too much? As a result, confluence leads to sinking air at the surface, the opposite of what you need for rain or snow. South Jersey didn’t have this sinking air regime, so the gradient of haves to have-nots with regards to snow was pretty tight.

KX: Is it unusual for an area to be hit by two storms of this size in such a short period of time?
JC: To have back to back blizzards isn’t just unusual, it’s historic. These storms, combined with the  snowstorm on December 19th put this season in the highest echelon of mid-Atlantic winters. This winter is already a 1 in 50 years type event for people in the Baltimore-Philadelphia corridor. Tack on a late season snowfall or two, and this could end up being a once in a lifetime winter. Truly, history in the making.

John Cifelli has produced forecasts specifically for New Jersey and surrounding metro areas since 2004. You can join his weather newsletter John Cifelli’s WeatherNJ by contacting him at johncifelli@gmail.com.

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