I hate basketball, I mean I REALLY hate basketball.
The players are overpaid, tickets are way too expensive, and I was always picked last in grade school.
Finally I and all the other rocket scientists out there have a reason to get excited for March Madness. NASA’s Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) is about to enter its second phase (CCDev2), and over the course of the last week, things have gotten really interesting.
Here’s a list of who is competing for a slice of NASA’s $200 million jackpot and why they’re a hot ticket:
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Dream Chaser: Looks like somebody beat me to the punch in trying to sell NASA back their own idea for the X-38. Made by Sierra Nevada Corporation this pint-sized space plane could be ready for trials next year with a little CCDev2 love.
Why it’s hot: Don’t let the fact that college students are helping design it deter you. This Space plane could be the next generation space shuttle we’ve all been looking for. New materials and new technology equals a high launch rate and could America’s ticket back up to the ISS when the Shuttle is gone.
Dragon Capsule: Dragon capsule will fly regardless of CCDev2 money, but with some extra funding they will be able to create an integrated launch abort system making the entire trip up to orbit safer, and giving it an controlled decent option.
Why it’s hot: Re-read that first sentence. Dragon is going to fly no matter what, the only question that really remains for Space X to answer is how safe will their system be. With some extra funding that answer could be: VERY.
- Prometheus: This is another lifting body, space plane. But here’s the difference, Orbital Science already has a partner who is willing to stick that plane on the front of their rocket. (Atlas 5)
Why it’s hot: Take the biggest names in aerospace, force them to run lean and come up with new ideas and pair it with existing technology and you have a interesting mix. Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrop make this plane a tempting choice.
CST-100: Names don’t get much more generic than ‘CST-100’but a rose by any other name… Just because Boeing is backing one space plane (see above) doesn’t mean they can’t put their own horse in the race and by horse I mean a 7 person capsule capable of mating to every rocket big enough to put it orbit.
Why it’s hot: Think open source space hardware and you get the idea. Why back one idea, when you can back an idea that gives you plenty of options in the future. This could be big for the project ADD NASA.
Atlas V: Can old dogs learn new tricks? They have in the past, the original rockets we put into space were based of the military purposed counter parts (Redstone). With some extra money we could do it again by human-rating the Atlas 5.
Why it’s hot: With just a little effort we could have a new launch vehicle ready to go in months, not years. Sure it doesn’t have the power to go very far… but 2012 looks a lot better than 2020 on paper.
All of these projects I just listed were received CCDev1 funding and all of them have been on budget, on time… that’s not something that happens a lot in the aerospace field. As awesome as all of these projects sound (and they are very very awesome) there’s been two late entries which could shake this competition up.
Liberty Rocket: Remember Ares-1, the Space Shuttle replacement that we scrapped? It’s back… sort of. ATK is partnering up with EADS Astrium to mate a 5-segment solid rocket motor with the core of an Arian 5 rocket coming up with something shockingly familiar.
Why it’s hot: There are still a lot of sore feelings about Ares-1 going away at NASA, this could help ease those feelings. Also, the 5-stage rocket was easily the most developed part of the program, add to that the Arian 5 has had a stupendous launch success rate and you may have the future of deep space exploration on your hands
- The Space Shuttle: Yes you heard right, United Space Alliance (Lockheed and Boeing) are asking to privatize the space shuttle and continue flying two mission a year.
Why it’s hot: There are a lot of funding problems with this bid, but all your infrastructure is in place, the hardware is built and in service, there is a skilled work force trained to use the system, and let’s face it: Love it or hate it, the Space Shuttle has been the gold standard for crewed mission for the past 30 years. These facts could make it an easy sell to congress to pony up a few extra bucks.
I really wish I could point to one and say “This is a horrible idea, let’s all make fun of it”, but the fact of the matter is they are all good ideas, have a fair level of maturity, and stand a good chance at scoring a chunk of change come March 2011.
The real question is this: Will NASA spread the money around and continue to grow these projects together, or will the late comers, which are going to require all the funding, force NASA to put its eggs in one basket?




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